Patriots Committed to Travel By Air vs. Broncos in AFC Championship Game
By Charles Jay
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The New England Patriots have been to six previous Super Bowl’s with the combination of coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady. They are on track for a seventh, but they must get by the top defense in the National Football League, as they take on the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game, getting underway at 3:05 PM ET at Sports Authority Field in Denver. After the opening kickoff, Vietbet customers will get to continue wagering, as they challenge the NFL betting odds in real time through the facilities of Live Betting Extra.
AFC Championship Game – Vietbet NFL BETTING LINE:
In the reduced juice NFL betting odds posted on this game by the people at Vietbet, New England is laying points as the road team:
New England Patriots -3 (+100)
Denver Broncos +3 (-110)
Over 44.5 points -108
Under 44.5 points -102
The Patriots (13-4 straight-up, 8-7-2 ATS) had something of advantage over the Kansas City Chiefs last week, in that Kansas City has a difficult time trading points. Andy Reid’s team was not built that way. And Reid exercised poor clock management toward the end, as the Chiefs were not able to mount a late charge, losing 27-20. Will New England be facing a stiffer challenge on defense against the Broncos, who will be quarterbacked by Peyton Manning?
These teams have faced each other earlier in the season, and Denver took a 30-24 overtime decision on November 29, as they came back from two-touchdown deficits twice in the game behind Brock Osweiler, who was getting the start in place of the injured Manning. Denver ran for 179 yards in that contest, and that is an important number to remember, because the Broncos are clearly going to have to establish a ground game in this one as well.
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What do the Patriots have to do to win this game? Well, they have clearly carved out a number of scenarios that don’t include running the football. Very early in the year, they lost Dion Lewis to an injury, and experienced the same thing with LaGarrette Blount, and ultimately that left them with a committee, including veteran Steven Jackson, who ran for 1000 yards a number of times in St. Louis with the Rams, but has not been a major contributor here, with just 27 carries and a 2.4-yard average.
It’s not a surprise that Brady operates primarily through the air anyway. He has thrown the ball 624 times, while the team has rushed it only 383 times. Brady had 4770 yards and 36 touchdowns, but as Vietbet patrons probably know, he was much less effective when he did not have wide receiver Julian Edelman in the game. Edelman had to sit out seven games with a foot injury, and one of those was the previous meeting with Denver. The Patriots were second-best in the league in converting third downs WITH Edelman, but were only 31% successful without him. That’s quite a difference, and this team has also not lost the game as long as Edelman was healthy and on the field.
So if you are looking for something that would be the difference-maker for the Patriots in this quest to get by the Broncos on the road, that might be it, in a nutshell. No, they don’t have to run the ball; these guys have had enough experience with “long handoffs,” and what Belichick calls “situational football” to really worry about whether the ground attack is going to be shut down. And that might even mitigate the effect of Denver’s defense, which allowed only 3.3 yards per carry but intercepted just 14 passes.
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