Football Betting Strategies – Turnovers are a major factor in winning and losing bets
What we want to do is take a look at what effect turnovers have in analyzing the football betting line for a particular game, and it is a tricky business, because it involves, to a certain extent, trying to forecast which team is going to cough it up more in the game you’re looking at. VietBet patrons may differ in their opinion about how accurately this can be forecast. However, I can say this much – there is no evidence available suggesting that a team that turns the ball over more than their opponent has a GREATER chance at winning, especially against a football betting line. It goes without saying that turnovers are a major factor in winning and losing.
Football Betting Strategies – Are Turnovers a definable pattern?
Like penalties, though, they really can’t be put into the handicapping equation unless a team’s propensity to commit turnovers turns into a definable pattern. Taking turnovers for granted where they may not apply can be a big blunder when handicapping against the football betting line. However, if a team DOES show a tendency to turn it over, or to force turnovers, it can at times be explained. Some teams have quarterbacks, for example, mostly inexperienced, who are not proficient at reading coverages, looking off defenders, or hitting secondary receivers, and throw interceptions because of it. Sometimes a team simply can’t give its quarterback enough time to throw, and it forces hurried decisions. Certain defenses are good at disguising coverage patterns, rushing the passer, double-teaming, helping in the secondary, blitzing, zone-blitzing, etc., and can force situations where they can get a turnover.
Football Betting Strategies – Getting the turnover edge
Getting the turnover edge can be a powerful thing. There was one year when the Vanderbilt Commodores had a decidedly non-explosive team, ranking 114th in offense (out of 120 teams) after the first five games. But on the basis of solid defense, and a +9 turnover ratio, the ‘Dores were undefeated and nationally-ranked. Of course, there’s another side to that coin; the next season, Vandy was +7 in the turnover category after five games, yet they were 2-3 and going nowhere. They didn’t win a game for the rest of the season.
It has not always been the most profitable move in the world to bet the team that has the better turnover ratio, so one thing to be considered is that often enough, that factor “evens itself out” over time, unless you’re looking at the kind of team we described above, which has logical reasons why it might make mistakes. It’s tricky to predict who will be more mistake-prone in any one game, but there is no question that once the game starts, turnovers are a critical determinant of winning or losing against the spread.
In fact, in the NFL the team with the turnover edge has covered 75% of the time over the last ten years against the football betting line.
Football Betting Strategies – an important turnover note
Let me make a special turnover note here – speaking about the category of Fumbles / Fumbles-Lost. You see this in a box score all the time, and certainly you want to apply it in evaluating football betting lines. Only the fumbles lost are counted as turnovers, and of course, that makes sense, since if you don’t lose the ball, you’re not turning it over. “Fumbles Lost” are bad, but I consider ALL fumbles to be mistakes. And that’s what I look at primarily. I mean, if a team fumbles, they fumble. They’re putting the ball on the ground. To me, it’s just dumb luck if they are able to recover it. It’s anybody’s ball. They’re not a better team for having recovered their own fumble. But they ARE a worse team for having lost it in the first place. That might be a small thing you notice that the guys who make up the football betting line don’t.
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By Charles Jay