2017 AFC Championship Odds and Betting Preview – A Closer Look at the New England Patriots
Pats’ Experience Could Offer Sharp Edge vs. Jags
Al Davis of the Oakland Raiders used the term “Commitment to Excellence” time and again, but that phrase probably applies more to the New England Patriots, who have won five Super Bowls under head coach Bill Belichick and are now appearing in the AFC championship game for the seventh straight season. So they “know the drill,” so to speak, as they prepare to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in another title game, scheduled to begin at 3 PM ET at their own Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. Keep in mind that if you are a VietBet customer, you can place wagers after the game has kicked off, with Live Betting UItra, and prior to the opening whistle, you can get more value in the AFC championship odds with reduced juice.
Jaguars vs Patriots – 2017 AFC Championship Odds:
Here are the AFC championship odds on this game, as they are posted by the good folks VietBet:
New England Patriots -8 (+100)
Jacksonville Jaguars +8 (-120)
Over 47 points -110
Under 47 points -110
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One of the things that has to be established right away is that New England has been a very profitable team for its backers this season. And it actually goes beyond that; with their 35-7 victory over the Tennessee Titans last week, they extended their point spread record to 12-5, and they have now covered 29 of their last 37 games on the board. Most of that, of course, has been as the favorite, so this is in no way an unfamiliar position for them.
And does this matchup do them any good? Well, they are going up against perhaps the best defense they have faced all season long, as the Jaguars have surrendered fewer yards and fewer points on a per-drive basis than any other team in the league. They also know how to force turnovers and they are very good at sacking the quarterback. There is almost no area in which they are deficient, with the possible exception of defending the running game as it comes right at them straight ahead. The Jaguars have allowed 4.3 yards per carry, but obviously their strength is in pursuit.
Yes, everybody talks about Jacksonville defense, but what needs to be mentioned is the renaissance in what New England is doing on that side of the ball. In the first four games of the season, they gave up 32 points per contest. And quarterbacks had a feast against them. Well, since then – a stretch of 13 games – they have only allowed 14 points per outing. And guess what? That’s better than any other team in the league during a period of time! They ran Marcus Mariota of Tennessee ragged last week, sacking him eight times, which is a playoff record. So no one should have any illusions about Jacksonville marching up and down the field against them. While the Patriots, mostly owing to some of their permissiveness in the early part of the schedule, allows more on a per-drive basis than any other NFL team, they are #6 in the league in points allowed per drive.
So how will Tom Brady advance the ball against this Jacksonville stop unit? Well, one thing he obviously has in his favor is the fact that the scheme New England uses is not necessarily based on plays that take a long time to develop. Short routes are the preferred way to go, as receivers have the opportunity to run with the football. So Brady can get rid of the ball quickly. That could have the effect of negating the Jaguars’ pass rush.
As VietBet patrons may be aware, with a guy like Brandin Cooks aboard, the Patriots also have an opportunity to stretch out that Jacksonville defense. Cooks averaged almost 17 yards per catch this season, and he is a genuine big-play threat. Look – whichever way New England chooses to go, they have a quarterback who has 66 touchdown passes in post-season play and has engineered 19 victories in 22 playoff games at home.
The actual experience edge is huge here; Blake Bortles, the quarterback for Jacksonville, is making only his third playoff start, and if the Patriots’ defense wants to crowd the box and slow down the Jags’ ground game, they will force Bortles into more of a position where he has to win this game with his arm. Even though Jacksonville racked up 45 points against Pittsburgh last week, Bortles only completed 14 passes. And he had just 88 yards through the air the week before against Buffalo. The Jaguars beat the Steelers with the help of a couple of key turnovers, and the Patriots are very stingy when it comes to giving up the ball (second-best in turnovers per drive in the NFL).
So it would not be surprising if the Patriots, who don’t take their foot off the pedal all that often, can create more and more distance in the second half of this game.
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By Charles Jay
